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OTTAWA — A new poll shows the NDP sliding dramatically over the summer, while the Conservatives continue to hold onto their significant lead.
The Postmedia-Leger poll, found support for the New Democrats dropped five percentage points to 15 per cent in just over a month. The Conservatives enjoy 43 per cent support nationally, a full 18 percentage points ahead of the federal Liberals, who are at 25 per cent.
Leger vice-president Andrew Enns said the drop in support for the NDP is significant, but it could be an outlier.
Enns noted NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has had a lower profile this summer. In addition, he said, the B.C. NDP are in a difficult provincial election and that may be tainting the party’s national numbers.
Overall, he said it is too soon to tell if the party’s position has changed permanently.
“It’s the first poll that there’s been that kind of movement. Let’s see if they park in sort of the mid to high teens, or are they going to sort of get back up over that into that 20 or 21 per cent that they have been at for a fair amount of time,” he said.
The Conservative party rose two points in the last month as did the Liberals. Enns said given where the battles for seats take place in Canada, if the drop in NDP support is permanent it will be best for the Conservatives.
“The split probably favours Conservatives in some seats, unless the Liberals start to track considerably higher in those regions than they currently are,” he said.
The NDP faces a crucial test next month in the Elmwood—Transcona byelection. The party has held that Winnipeg seat, almost uninterrupted, since the 1980s. The riding is usually a two-way battle between the NDP and the Conservatives, with the Liberals in a distant third.
The only time the Conservatives have won the riding was in 2011, which was the last and only time they won a majority government in the past three decades.
In the Leger poll, the Conservatives lead across the country, except in Quebec where they are in third place with 23 per cent support, behind the Bloc Quebecois at 29 per cent and the Liberals at 27 per cent.
The poll also has bad news for Liberal supporters as Canadians continue to be dissatisfied with the Trudeau government.
In the poll, only 28 per cent of respondents said they were either very or somewhat satisfied with the government, while 25 per cent said they were somewhat dissatisfied and 40 per cent said they were very dissatisfied with how the Liberals were running the country.
Enns said the people in the very dissatisfied camp are going to be a real hurdle for the Liberals because they are unlikely to keep their opinions to themselves.
“Those are the folks that are going to — if the conversation turns to politics, at the kitchen, at the cottage or the family dinner — those are the folks who are probably going to weigh in with an opinion at this point,” he said.
Earlier this week, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was asked about his decision to stay on as Liberal leader as his personal popularity has slid and his party has stayed down in the polls. He said the next election is still more than a year away and his party is focused on delivering until then.
“We’re going to go into this next election putting a very clear choice for Canadians, but we’re still a year plus away from the election. I’m focused on making sure we’re delivering,” he said.
Canadians have had high levels of dissatisfaction with the government in Leger’s survey going back more than a year. Enns said short of a major misstep by the Conservatives it will be hard for the Liberals to reverse course.
He added that Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has proven he can avoid or minimize any mistakes.
“He seems quite capable of taking those head-on and dealing with them in a manner that doesn’t, so far, anyway, appear to shake the confidence of Canadians.”
Leger’s poll was an online sample of 1,602 Canadians conducted between Aug. 23 and 25. The online sample is weighted to reflect Canada’s demographic makeup, but a similar random sample would produce a margin of error of 2.45 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
National Post
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